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After entering the third quarter of this year, the risks and challenges faced by China's textile and garment exports have further increased, the global epidemic has intensified repeatedly, the recovery of the world economy is still uncertain, the international commodity prices are running at a high level, some domestic regions have been impacted by the epidemic and flood, the soaring sea freight and the restriction of production and electricity affect the performance, resulting in the loss of orders. In the face of many adverse factors, textile and garment exports still achieved good results in the third quarter. The decline in exports narrowed in the current quarter and exports resumed growth in September, driving the rapid growth of cumulative exports in the first three quarters, which exceeded the forecast given by the industry in the middle of the year. The main reasons for the growth are as follows:

First, the expansion of external demand boosted the growth of consumer goods exports. Under the epidemic situation, the demand for daily consumer goods in the markets of developed countries such as Europe and the United States has increased. In September, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of general consumer goods, including furniture, bags, clothing, toys, shoes and boots, accelerated to 13.9% from 9.6% in August. In August, the import of general consumer goods from the world by the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 22.3%, 7.9% and 1% respectively.

Second, the price rise has driven the export speed up. This year, the international commodity prices continued to be high. The domestic purchase and import prices of textile raw materials such as cotton and chemical fiber remained high, and the increase was expanding. In terms of the purchase price index of industrial producers, the purchase price index of textile raw materials increased by 3.5% in the first three quarters and 7.6% in September, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month. The cumulative import price of cotton increased by 12%, including 37% in September, and the import price of chemical fiber increased by 2.4%, including 20% in September. In the first half of the year, the rise in the price of raw materials was not transmitted to the downstream, which seriously squeezed the profits of enterprises. Since the third quarter, according to the data, export enterprises have passively increased the price under the influence of multiple adverse factors. The export price of downstream clothing products has increased as a whole, and the average price increase of needle woven clothing in the third quarter reached 20%. Domestic prices have also increased. In September, the producer's ex factory price index of textile industry increased by 7.4%, with a cumulative increase of 2.5%. The producer's ex factory price index of clothing and clothing industry increased by 0.4% in the same month, of which the producer's ex factory price recovery rate of knitting manufacturing industry exceeded that of woven clothing. The price of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased rapidly. In September, the ex factory price index increased by 23.8%, with a cumulative increase of 13.8%.

Third, the export of epidemic prevention materials slowed down. The year-on-year decline in the export of medical masks gradually narrowed, from 90% in May to 70%, and that of medical protection products narrowed from 90% to 83%. The export of the two major epidemic prevention products dragged down the export growth rate in September by only 11.2 percentage points, the smallest since April this year.

Fourth, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, Southeast Asia reduced production and exports, and some orders returned home, filling the vacancy of the decline of manufacturing industry in the region.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the export environment is still severe and complex. The market rescue policy of key markets will gradually withdraw, which will be superimposed with inflation, and consumers' consumption will be restrained to a certain extent; After Southeast Asian countries adapt to the epidemic, the phenomenon of order backflow will gradually reduce, and the procurement direction of importers will return to the track before the epidemic; Production and power restrictions will continue for some time in various places, which will cause capacity bottlenecks in the short term and affect order receiving, production and shipment before the end of the year. It is expected that it is still difficult for exports to resume growth under the high base effect in the fourth quarter, but there is no suspense about the general trend of export growth in the whole year.

From January to September this year, China's textile and garment trade volume reached US $254.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, an increase of 15.4% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export was 233.02 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.4%, an increase of 15.5% over the same period in 2019; The import was USD 21.15 billion, an increase of 23.5%, an increase of 14.2% over the same period in 2019, and the cumulative trade surplus was USD 211.87 billion, an increase of 4.9%, an increase of 15.6% over the same period in 2019.

In September, the trade volume of textiles and clothing reached US $32.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, an increase of 22% over the same period in 2019 and a month on month decrease of 3.2%. Among them, the export was US $29.83 billion, an increase of 3.4%, an increase of 21.9% over the same period in 2019 and a decrease of 3.4% month on month; Imports amounted to USD 2.52 billion, an increase of 13.4%, an increase of 23.8% over the same period in 2019 and a month on month decrease of 0.8%. The trade surplus of the month was US $27.31 billion, an increase of 2.6%, an increase of 21.7% over the same period in 2019 and a decrease of 3.6% month on month.

Cumulative export decline

Narrowed by clothing

Since the third quarter, the monthly export of textile and clothing has picked up. The export volume in August exceeded US $30 billion. In September, the export resumed growth after falling in April. The cumulative export in the third quarter was US $89.63 billion, down 2.5%, less than that in the second quarter (- 4.9%).

Driven by the recovery of external market demand, end consumer goods and clothing play a significant role in driving the overall export. The cumulative export of clothing in the third quarter was US $52.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a month-on-month increase of 32.3% over the second quarter, positively driving the overall export of textile and clothing in the current quarter to increase by 5.7 percentage points.

Due to the repeated and aggravation of the epidemic in ASEAN and other places, the export of textile intermediate products was blocked. The textile export decreased by 15.8% in the third quarter and 0.2% month on month in the second quarter. However, in September, exports fell by only 4.9%, significantly narrowed compared with the previous period, and gradually showed the momentum of recovery.

Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3

Europe, America and ASEAN

The market is good and the trend remains unchanged

Since the third quarter, the market recovery situation of the United States and the European Union has been relatively clear, and China's exports to it have shown a stable growth trend as a whole. The repeated impact of the epidemic in ASEAN has led to a temporary decline in China's exports to ASEAN, but it will not affect the long-term positive trend. The Japanese market is still moving forward in twists and turns in fluctuations and lacks the power to recover for a long time.

Exports to the United States resumed growth. Exports to the United States stopped falling in September, with exports growing by 2.9% in the same month. The cumulative export to the United States maintained a good growth trend. From January to September, the cumulative export to the United States was US $42.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, an increase of 21.2% over the same period in 2019. Among them, needle woven clothing of major commodities increased by 39.7%, an increase of 5.5% over the same period in 2019. With the recovery of U.S. consumer confidence, the external prediction of U.S. economic recovery occupies the mainstream. It is expected that the export of consumer goods to the United States will maintain a good trend in the fourth quarter.

The decline in exports to the EU narrowed and the growth of clothing expanded. In September, the decline of China's exports to the EU further narrowed to 2.9%, of which the growth rate of needle woven clothing of major commodities expanded to 19%. From January to September, China's textile and garment exports to the EU reached US $35.18 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4% and an increase of 14.6% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export of needle woven clothing increased by 15.7%, an increase of 5.9% over 2019.

The Japanese market recovered slowly, and exports to Japan were in a fluctuating range. In September, China's exports to Japan did not continue the improvement trend in August and fell again. Exports fell by 10.1% in the month, an increase of 6 percentage points over the previous month. Needle woven clothing of major commodities increased by only 3.4%. From January to September, China's textile and garment exports to Japan decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1.3% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity needle woven clothing increased by 7% year-on-year and decreased by 7.7% compared with 2019.

The recurrence of the ASEAN epidemic has seriously affected the manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia. Governments are eager to maintain their economy and gradually begin to adopt the strategy of "coexistence with the virus" to restore production and external supply. After China's exports to ASEAN fell for the first time in the year in August, they rebounded again in September. In the same month, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 14.6%, including 18.6% of major commodity yarn and fabric. From January to September, China's textile and garment exports to ASEAN increased by 23.1% year-on-year, with the fastest growth among the four major markets. An increase of 23.5% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity yarn and fabric increased by 29% year-on-year and 7.5% over 2019.

August EU and Japan

Imports from ASEAN decline

According to the textile and garment import data of major markets in August, the serious epidemic in Southeast Asia has led to the loss of orders, mainly in the EU and Japan markets. In the same month, the import from ASEAN decreased by 3.5% and 11.7% respectively, and the import from ASEAN by the United States still maintained a rapid growth rate.

From January to August, 27 EU countries imported 85.49 billion US dollars of textiles and clothing from the world, down 5.8%, 32.2% from China, accounting for 32.7%, down from the same period in 2020 and still higher than the same period in 2019. Among them, textiles accounted for 41.1% and clothing accounted for 29.3%, both lower than 2020 and higher than the same period in 2019. ASEAN's market position was further improved. EU's textile and garment imports from ASEAN increased by 24.9%, accounting for 13.1%, both higher than the previous two years.

From January to August, the United States imported $89.76 billion in textiles and clothing from the world, an increase of 14.3%, and $27.2 billion from China, a decrease of 12.7%. China accounted for 30.3%, lower than the same period in 2020 and 2019. Among them, textiles accounted for 37% and clothing accounted for 27.8%, both lower than the same period in 2019 and 2020. Textile and garment imports from ASEAN increased by 32.3%, accounting for 25.8%, both higher than the previous two years.

From January to August, Japan imported US $23.32 billion from the world, a decrease of 6.2%, and imports from China decreased by 11.6%. China accounted for 55.3%, lower than the same period in 2020, but higher than the same period in 2019. Among them, textiles accounted for 57.4%, lower than the same period in 2020 and higher than the same period in 2019; Clothing accounts for 54.5%, higher than the same period in 2020 and lower than the same period in 2019. Textile and garment imports from ASEAN increased by 0.1%, accounting for 28.9%, both higher than the previous two years.

Southeast Asia and central North America

Large demand for epidemic prevention materials

In September, the export volume of major categories of textile and garment commodities maintained a good growth trend, with yarn, fabric and needle woven clothing increasing by 18.4%, 21.5% and 15% respectively, and textile finished products decreasing by 25%. Since the third quarter, the export prices of major commodities have increased significantly. The export prices of yarn, fabric and needle woven clothing increased by 32.6%, 16.4% and 20.1% respectively.

The global export of epidemic prevention materials still decreased, but the regional differences were obvious: the global export of medical masks decreased by 71% in September, but the demand rebounded in Southeast Asia and central and North America due to the intensification of the epidemic, and the export stopped falling and rebounded. In September, the export of medical masks to ASEAN increased by 31% year-on-year, and the export to central and North America (except the United States and Canada) increased by 56%, which narrowed the cumulative decline in exports to both places from January to September.

From January to September, the cumulative export of textiles was USD 106.37 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, an increase of 19.4% over the same period in 2019, and the export of clothing was USD 126.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, an increase of 12.5% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the total export of masks and protective clothing was US $12.632 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 79%. After removing the mask, the textile increased by 37% year-on-year, an increase of 13.3% over the same period in 2019; Clothing without protective clothing increased by 38% year-on-year and 11.4% over 2019. Masks and protective clothing account for 5.4% of the total exports. Yarn, fabrics and needle woven clothing of major commodity categories increased by 44.2%, 38.1% and 24.9% respectively.

Note *: masks and protective clothing are counted according to HS8 code of China Customs.

Eastern and Western Regions

Driving the growth of national exports

In September, the textile and garment export volume of major provinces and cities in China maintained a positive trend. Among the top 5 provinces and cities, only Guangdong's exports still have negative growth, and the decline has narrowed to single digits, with Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and Fujian all maintaining growth.

From January to September, among the top five provinces and cities, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and Fujian increased by 13.9%, 8.4%, 20.3% and 27.4% respectively, and Guangdong decreased by 7.9%. The export of Xinjiang, Hebei and Jiangxi increased rapidly, with an increase of more than 30%. The eastern and western regions are the main regions driving the national growth, with the cumulative export growth of 6.9% and 24.5% respectively, driving the national growth of 5.9 and 1.1 percentage points respectively. The central region fell slightly, down 7.7%.

Import prices of raw materials soared

The volume and price of key commodities rose at the same time

In the third quarter, the import volume of textiles and clothing reached a phased high, with an import of US $7.45 billion, an increase of 8.7% compared with the second quarter. However, the year-on-year growth rate was significantly slower than that in the previous period, with an increase of 19.8% in the current quarter, far lower than 42.6% in the second quarter, including an increase of 13.4% in September and the lowest in the year (except February).

In the first three quarters, the cumulative import of textile and garment increased by 23.5%, and the volume and price of key imported commodities increased at the same time. The import volume of yarn, fabrics and needle woven clothing increased by 21%, 0.2% and 10.4% respectively, and the average import price increased by 18.4%, 16.6% and 21.7% respectively. The pulling effect of import price is more prominent.

The import price of raw materials rose strongly. In September, the import price of textile raw materials increased by 54%, 32 percentage points higher than that at the end of the second quarter, and increased by 11.3% from January to September.

Deviation of cotton import volume and price

International cotton prices rose rapidly

Since the beginning of the year, cotton imports have shown a trend of deviation from volume and price. The import volume has fallen rapidly since reaching the peak in January and dropped to 75000 tons in September, a new low at the end of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of 65%. Import prices continued to rise, rising to US $2120 / ton in September, a new high in the year, up 37% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the cumulative import of cotton was 1.85 million tons, an increase of 32.3%, and the average import price was 1870 US dollars / ton, an increase of 12%. The United States, Brazil, India, Australia and Burkina Faso are among the top five source countries of imports. In addition to the 70% decline in imports from Australia, the cumulative imports from the other four places still maintain growth, but the monthly imports have shown an obvious downward trend. Emerging source countries (regions) such as Benin, Sudan and C ô te d'Ivoire are making up for the share of traditional importing countries (regions).

According to the information released by the China Cotton Association, in September, new cotton harvesting began one after another. Affected by the weather, the national cotton picking progress was slower than last year. The number of new cotton listed in the month was less, and the transaction of reserve cotton was enthusiastic. Driven by the rise of commodity prices, the price of cotton at home and abroad rose sharply, the price increase of foreign cotton was higher than that of domestic cotton, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton narrowed; On September 30, the international cotton spot price cotook a index was 112.2 cents / pound, the price within the tariff was 17869 yuan / ton, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was 1235 yuan / ton, the price of discount and sliding standard tax was 18000 yuan / ton, and the price difference with domestic cotton was 1105 yuan / ton. Over the same period, China's cotton price index (ccindex3128b) was 19104 yuan / ton, an increase of 977 yuan over the end of last month and 6213 yuan year-on-year; The average monthly price was 18237 yuan / ton, up 221 yuan month on month and 5441 yuan year-on-year.